Defense & Security Tech Economics

Controversial finding of positive correlations between military spending and growth in developing countries, launching decades of debate that largely overturned these results.

Comprehensive review concluding that most evidence suggests military spending has no positive effect on growth, and likely negative effects, overturning Benoit's earlier findings.

Predicts larger alliance members bear disproportionate defense burdens due to free-riding—a prediction NATO data has largely confirmed for sixty years. Foundational public goods application.

Synthesizes how joint products, technology changes, and publicness affect alliance burden-sharing dynamics. Essential reading on NATO economics.

Introduced the famous differential equations with 'fatigue,' 'reaction,' and 'grievance' terms that still structure formal arms race analysis.

Shows how Richardson-type equations emerge from rational optimization under nuclear deterrence scenarios. Bridge between formal modeling and strategic analysis.

RAND analysis of 35 major acquisition programs identifying four major categories of cost growth: estimation errors, government decisions, financial matters, and miscellaneous factors.

Documents Augustine's Law phenomena in shipbuilding—systematic cost growth exceeding inflation due to increasing complexity in naval vessels.

Classic study of how contract types shape contractor behavior in defense acquisition. Foundation for understanding procurement incentives.

Found defense industry consolidation increased use of cost-plus contracts and reduced competitive bidding, though government buyer power constrained cost increases.

Analyzes conditions under which military R&D generates civilian benefits, highlighting measurement challenges in dual-use technology spillovers.

Identifies when ARPA-style funding works: mission orientation, nascent S-curve technologies, and market frictions justifying government intervention.

Founded security economics by arguing information insecurity stems from perverse economic incentives, not just technical failures. Introduced network externalities, asymmetric information, and moral hazard in security contexts.

The Gordon-Loeb Model: organizations should invest no more than 37% of expected loss from a breach, and investing in moderately vulnerable systems may yield higher returns.

Analyzed 'weakest link' versus 'best shot' security models, showing how network structure affects optimal investment strategies.

Game-theoretic foundations for understanding why firms systematically underinvest when security decisions create externalities.

Winner of the Shin Research Excellence Award. Extracted 994 cyber loss cases identifying heavy tails, correlated risks, and information asymmetries as key barriers to sustainable cyber insurance markets.

IMF analysis of cyber risk market failures and financial stability implications, providing policy recommendations for systemic risk management.

Found public disclosure speeds vendor patch response compared to private disclosure, though attacks increase temporarily. Seminal WEIS paper on disclosure economics.

Brought space economics to mainstream economics attention in JEP, analyzing the shift from government to commercial priorities in a sector now exceeding $300 billion annually.

NASA technical analysis documenting transformative 20x reduction in LEO launch costs: Space Shuttle $54,500/kg versus Falcon 9 $2,720/kg.

PNAS paper showing imperfect competition among satellite constellations reduces welfare from orbit use by up to 12%—approximately $1.1 billion per year—using a coupled physico-economic model.

Examines space debris through law and economics frameworks, noting China (42%), US (27.5%), and Russia (25.5%) bear primary responsibility for existing debris.

NIST-commissioned study estimating a 30-day GPS outage would cost $1 billion per day, with GPS contributing to 13 of 16 critical infrastructure sectors.

Projects debris costs could exceed 0.5% of world GDP long-term without intervention, using integrated assessment modeling for orbital sustainability.

Analysis of Russian drone strikes finding Shahed drones cost approximately $35,000 each—with less than 10% hit rates, they represent the most cost-effective munition. When $3 million missiles target $200 drones, the 15,000:1 cost disadvantage threatens traditional air defense economics.

Argues autonomy should optimize political and economic cost rather than just tactical characteristics. Autonomous systems work best as cost-saving complements to manned missions.

Introduced the human-in-the-loop, human-on-the-loop, and human-out-of-the-loop framework now standard in lethal autonomous weapons system (LAWS) policy discussions.

Comprehensive RAND assessment comparing U.S., China, and Russia military AI development efforts, with implications for strategic competition.

Brookings study documenting the massive role of military procurement in creating U.S. technological leadership in computing.

Documents global military AI spending doubling from $4.6B to $9.2B (2022-2023), projected to reach $38.8B by 2028. Analyzes Project Maven's evolution and private sector dependencies.

Finalization of post-quantum cryptography standards (FIPS 203, 204, 205) after eight years of global evaluation. Selected from 82 algorithms submitted by 25 countries.

Addresses AI system failures and their interaction with strategic factors, recommending approaches to reduce failure likelihood and contain consequences.

Notes China has pulled ahead in resilient PNT infrastructure through Beidou constellation plus terrestrial backup systems—a strategic asymmetry with economic implications.

Addresses the 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat that makes current encrypted data potentially vulnerable to future quantum computers, with transition timeline guidance.